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Preventative Maintenance - The "Waddington Effect"

Started by GeoRocket, January 25, 2019, 09:30:25 AM

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GeoRocket

Hello All –

This is my first post, but I have been reading on the site for some time.  I really appreciate all of the good information and willingness of members to share and help others.  This site gives me hope that the internet is actually worthwhile.  Thanks all for your contributions to this site!

I own a 1995 FLHT Evo with 50k miles.  I have owned it since new.  It is completely stock, and I have had very few problems with the bike.  I do not beat on it.   I also work hard to take care of it with proper maintenance.   I love it and have no plans to ever sell it!    This is the topic of my post – maintenance.

It is clear that there are some common weaknesses/failures with the Evo, like the inner cam bearing, lifters, base gaskets etc.  I understand that by 1995 many issues were sorted out by HD, but some remained.  My question is whether I should proactively address any of these common issues BEFORE any signs of failure.  Call it "Preventative Maintenance" or "PM".  I know many install performance cams and other upgrades, and these have likely contributed to failures of inner cam bearings and lifters.  My cam is stock ("N").  My engine has never been opened up.

I have seen a variety of opinions on this PM topic and wanted to start a fact-based discussion with experienced folk, and this seems to be the best place.

Now here is the interesting part!  The aeronautical industry has good experience with this PM topic.  I recently found this information about the "Waddington Effect".  PLEASE read this before you respond.  I was blown away when I researched this.  (I love it when conventional thinking proves to be completely wrong.)
https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2014/01/14/the-waddington-effect/
https://www.savvyaviation.com/wp...eaa/EAA_2011-03_the-waddington-effect.pdf

Some background about me: I am a manufacturing (automation) engineer working in automotive for 35 years (Detroit).  Part of my current job is analyzing systematic machine failures (rates, causes) and doing FMEA evaluations (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) on complex manufacturing equipment (lots of robots etc.).  Right or wrong, we have a long culture of "don't fix it until it breaks".

My Question: Would you replace the inner cam bearing or lifters in a 1995 STOCK Evo with 50k miles when there were NO signs of problems and you were NOT planning to open up the cam chest for any other reason?  Why?

Thanks everyone for reading this far.  I am interested in informed opinions on the PM topic generally.  Let me know what you think.  Thanks!

George

Princess Butt

I can hear my dad right now, a an engineer who spent most of his career in the defense industry: "If it ain't broken, don't fix it!"

I know when we obsess over the maintenance, it usually consumes us to an unforgiving end. After I first started driving, I discovered something wrong with my car all the time, and I would fix things which would be suspect in reliability. Then I would replace things before they needed replacing, and I had a stash of spare parts coming out of my ears.

But there is another side to this dilemma: how often do we disturb something which was fine to begin with, then something gives us trouble after we open the can of worms? I'm guilty, of course, but I've also learned how to be patient and fix something right.

I would change out the inner cam bearing and the lifters too. Cheap insurance, they're a known failure point with a finite lifespan. When they fail, it gets messy to repair, often requiring extensive disassembly.

Don't put a big cam in there either, or you just start running it harder and expecting more performance. If it runs fine with the stock cam, leave it in there.

Otherwise, the 80 inch Evo is an anvil.
Shiny side up, rubber side down.

PC_Hater

Interesting link to excellent info!
Now, what reliable data does anybody have about the longevity of the inner cam bearing on an EVO?
I know that replacing that bearing ASAP has been the thing to do since the 1980s or earlier.
What does the factory manual recommend?
Even better  - what does the factory manual for Police bikes recommend?

I ask that because the factory manual for the early Twin Cams makes no mention of replacing the engine mounts.
The factory manual for the Police bikes says to replace them every 20,000 miles.

The other option is to test the oil.
When the analysis is done - what is pointing to that bearing about to die?

If you are feeling paranoid - replace it.
Plan B - keep a close eye on it and any funny noises.
At that mileage with your low miles per year I would leave it alone.
Planning go-fasters? Change that bearing!
1942 WLA45 chop, 1999 FLTR(not I), 2000 1200S

Thermodyne

Quote from: GeoRocket on January 25, 2019, 09:30:25 AM
Hello All –

This is my first post, but I have been reading on the site for some time.  I really appreciate all of the good information and willingness of members to share and help others.  This site gives me hope that the internet is actually worthwhile.  Thanks all for your contributions to this site!

I own a 1995 FLHT Evo with 50k miles.  I have owned it since new.  It is completely stock, and I have had very few problems with the bike.  I do not beat on it.   I also work hard to take care of it with proper maintenance.   I love it and have no plans to ever sell it!    This is the topic of my post – maintenance.

It is clear that there are some common weaknesses/failures with the Evo, like the inner cam bearing, lifters, base gaskets etc.  I understand that by 1995 many issues were sorted out by HD, but some remained.  My question is whether I should proactively address any of these common issues BEFORE any signs of failure.  Call it "Preventative Maintenance" or "PM".  I know many install performance cams and other upgrades, and these have likely contributed to failures of inner cam bearings and lifters.  My cam is stock ("N").  My engine has never been opened up.

I have seen a variety of opinions on this PM topic and wanted to start a fact-based discussion with experienced folk, and this seems to be the best place.

Now here is the interesting part!  The aeronautical industry has good experience with this PM topic.  I recently found this information about the "Waddington Effect".  PLEASE read this before you respond.  I was blown away when I researched this.  (I love it when conventional thinking proves to be completely wrong.)
https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2014/01/14/the-waddington-effect/
https://www.savvyaviation.com/wp...eaa/EAA_2011-03_the-waddington-effect.pdf

Some background about me: I am a manufacturing (automation) engineer working in automotive for 35 years (Detroit).  Part of my current job is analyzing systematic machine failures (rates, causes) and doing FMEA evaluations (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) on complex manufacturing equipment (lots of robots etc.).  Right or wrong, we have a long culture of "don't fix it until it breaks".

My Question: Would you replace the inner cam bearing or lifters in a 1995 STOCK Evo with 50k miles when there were NO signs of problems and you were NOT planning to open up the cam chest for any other reason?  Why?

Thanks everyone for reading this far.  I am interested in informed opinions on the PM topic generally.  Let me know what you think.  Thanks!

George

"If it isn't broke, don't fix it" is a good way to save money.  Except.  And if you are going to use the Waddington study, you need to take it in context.  Wadding was dealing with inherently unreliable aircraft, and poorly trained repair technicians.   

With a Harley motorcycle, the level of difficulty is much lower than say a 1942 B24.  The motor cycle is a much simpler system with few points of failure for a mistake to occur.   And said mistakes seldom result in multiple deaths. Also the level of maintaince being done is nothing like what was done to a 1940's war plane.  But it still takes some technical skill to repair them.

To get to your issue.  The reason behind replacing tappets and cam bearings is that when they fail, they have a nasty habit of writing the whole engine off.  At a minimum they do considerable damage to other components in the cam chest.  There is also the issue of the low cost cam bearing the MoCo accountants were fond of using.  Cam bearing, 4 tappets, and a couple of keys and snap rings along with a few gaskets is a pretty inexpensive repair, when compared to swapping in a reman engine.

And back to the when they fail part, most cam bearings with plastic roller separators are going to fail.  It a materials issue with the plastic.  And even if you catch it early, the correct "Waddington" repair would involve a complete tear down of the engine.  And that involves more parts and more precision assemble work.  Introducing to possibility of errors to the equation. 

As for the tappets, its basically the same issue, many will fail by 50K miles.  And even more will fail shortly after being reinstalled in a repaired engine.  If the needle bearing fails, the correct repair is a complete tear down.  The total failure rate is fairly low on tappets.  But the cost of new tappets is also fairly low.  Less than the labor required to disassemble and check the used tappets. 

So at 50K, you really should replace the cam bearing, along with the oil pump key and snap ring.  Then while you have the tappets out, you make a judgment call.  $100 for new tappets.  Or take a chance.  Maybe you find a roller with excess play and that helps you decide.  Maybe one is badly frosted.  But most likely you will be basically flipping a coin.  Me, I'll spend the $100 bucks every time.  A $100 wont cover the cost of a damaged cam lobe, let alone a complete tear down.   



 

Hilly13

What a good read, oil analysis and or filter inspection at service intervals will give you a live history of the engines health, I do the latter but not the former, can't justify the cost to myself.
Anecdotal data, tappets, cam bearing, breather, base gaskets, rocker gaskets. If a base gasket starts leaking and it is ignored the head gasket will fail eventually, the breather if it has never been changed is now a 24 year old piece of plastic, a new one wouldn't hurt, still if it ain't broke.....
Would I change the lifters and bearing in your shoes? If the filter medium showed any reason to then yep, for myself I would anyway, with all due care taken there should only be positives and no Waddington effect.
Just because its said don't make it so

CndUltra88

My experience George is that I like to fix things till they break.
If it aint broke, leaking or making clunking noises leave it alone till it does.
95 they prolly got it all worked out from the porous castings of late 80's early 90's.
Rob
Infantryman Terry Street
End of Tour April,4,2008 Panjwayi district Afghanistan

1workinman

I was at a class that Timken bearing was presenting at work and I asked the engineer about planed obsolesce or however its spelled . He did get a laugh and of course denied it pertaining to  the unit bearings . . So the way I look at these things are is it worth the risk as the cam bearing and lifters are know to fail . When they do its not pretty . At work as I work at a power generation plant you can run to failure or do the predicted maintained that is suggested by the company that made it or other indicators , vibration or oil analysis for example .  A while back the company decided to save a few dollars and put off a fan over haul . The fan came apart and it was not pretty , as you can guess the cost was substantial lol and derate the unit also . Not good .  I guess is comes down to ones comfort level . I think lifters are item that need replacing at a mileage like oil and the crappy cam bearing need replacing because they were a bad design and know to fail or that what I been told .  Just my option

Panzer

So, the way I see it, replace the defective/broken part only when it breaks and disturb/replace nothing else .... button it up.
Interesting.
Everyone wants to change the world but, no one wants to change the toilet paper.

IronMike113

Quote from: Panzer on January 25, 2019, 04:56:16 PM
So, the way I see it, replace the defective/broken part only when it breaks and disturb/replace nothing else .... button it up.
Interesting.


We have some that just run the dog chit out of them and never do anything,Or We have some that need to replace everything,,,,,,,,  :emoGroan: I try to place myself in the middle of of this and go with the Flow,,,But if we can make it better than the Ole saying they all do that,Why Not,We are Gear Heads here any way,,,,,,,,,,  :hyst: isn't that why we are here Reading this chit any how,,,,,,,,,  :hyst:
2 Bikes and 2 Beemers, that's what I have been told 😳

mrmike

Very interesting read, I would think that a good part of the decision might be "is there an improved part for the replacement?"

Mike
I'm not leaving til I have a good time

joe40x

Using this logic, we should never change a tire until it come off of the rim by itself. Gee, that prop looks lose...screw it, we'll fix it when it comes off. England was hard pressed in WW2 to find boots on the ground let alone qualified mechanics. If you could tell the difference between a hammer and a spanner, you were a mechanic.
The Waddington effect is supported with documentation, is verifiable and clearly exacerbated by the use of unqualified or inexperienced  mechanics.
Does your inner cam bearing need replaced? Probably, but not by a 10yr old with a rubber mallet and a screwdriver.

hbkeith

Having owned a few EVO,s ( 8 if I remember), you could just wait till something breaks , but it will probally be the lifter falling apart and maybe it will cost $1000+ to fix from the damage or PM the weak parts for couple hundred now  :nix:

Tarkus60

For the minimal cost of cam bearings and tappets its a no brainer to replace them. They are a wear item, that simple.

smoserx1

No I don't believe in that principal, at least not entirely.  You have a low mileage bike.  I have a 99 FLHT with 206000 miles on it and I guarantee you that as the miles increase on yours, your reliably will go down.  Now that being said, I don't blindly follow the service recommendations in the book.  For instance I don't lubricate cables as long as they are operating smoothly.  I have never adjusted the clutch (I did replace it last year as part of a primary change because I wanted a lower overall ratio).  I have only changed the DOT 5 brake fluid twice (once after 4 years and again last year).  The only thing I found was the color had turned yellow, which I later read happens, and the fluid I replaced last year turned yellow within 6 months.  Spark plugs last far longer than the recommended 10000 miles and I run a K&N filter and it really does not need to be cleaned very often.  And one thing that lots of folks don't understand about filtration is that a light particulate layer on the media actually helps in the  particle trapping and is beneficial up to the point of obstructing the flow.

There are weak links in the bike though.  Everyone knows that the cam arrangement in an early twin cam is a disaster waiting to happen.  That is why I run conversion cams that get rid of the outer bearings, and change the inner bearings with full compliment units.  And  anytime I go into the cam compartment those inner bearings are getting replaced as well as are the lifters.  All I have to do is read horror stories here and other places.

I had a swingarm crack once near the axle.  The spacer washer had become dish shaped.  Anyone who has ever taken mechanics of materials or even physics knows that concave washer reduces the contact area and thereby increases the pressure on the swingarm at that point.  Now everytime I put the rear wheel back on I inspect that washer carefully and I have quit using the 60 or so ft pounds of torque the book recommends.  I snug it up to what FEELS good to me and put the lynch pin into the axle at that point.  That new swingarm now has about 85000 on it and the washer has not become dished since I reduced the recommended torque.

I have had to remove my inner primary numerous times now for various reasons (swingarm, belts, stator, IP bearing races, etc).  Lots of seals are involved (shifter shaft, IP bearing, Jackshaft, quad ring, 5th gear mainshaft etc.)  My experience is the seals have a limited life, so everytime the inner primary comes off ALL of the seals get replaced.

I could go on and on, but in the end it is a personal thing based on experience and what works for you.  Ride your bike, maintain it reasonably and  keep your roadside assistance current and your cell phone with you and charged.  That is my advice.

IronMike113

 With every action there's an equal and opposite reaction, with every problem there's a solution just a matter of taking action,,,,,,,,,,,  :emoGroan: (Albert Einstein)
2 Bikes and 2 Beemers, that's what I have been told 😳

Hossamania

I have taken the philosophy of the Waddington Effect to heart. I have really cut down on the maintenance that I do on the bikes. Not because of this study, but because I'm lazy and cheap.
Having said that, for peace of mind I changed the inner cam bearing and tappets on my Evo at 25,000 miles because it was a known weak point. Same with the Twin Cam.
If the government gives you everything you want,
it can take away everything you have.

guppymech

George, Welcome to HTT and thanks for the article link, as a 33 yr UAL A&P I followed on with the UAL Nowlan and Heap Reliabilty Centered Maint. report, I'm going to try and wade through it's 520 pages. 
IMO if your engine has the INA bearing it would be good to change it.  As far as lifters, if there is a source for good USA made ones I'd consider changing them but I don't see people changing the roller lifters in their cars at 50K intervals.   I work with a guy that got just over 100K on his 89(?) FLH before he had to think about overhauling his engine, which has just been removed but I haven't heard what the problem with it was. 
'84 FXE, '02 883R

turboprop

Quote from: GeoRocket on January 25, 2019, 09:30:25 AM
Hello All –

This is my first post, but I have been reading on the site for some time.  I really appreciate all of the good information and willingness of members to share and help others.  This site gives me hope that the internet is actually worthwhile.  Thanks all for your contributions to this site!

I own a 1995 FLHT Evo with 50k miles.  I have owned it since new.  It is completely stock, and I have had very few problems with the bike.  I do not beat on it.   I also work hard to take care of it with proper maintenance.   I love it and have no plans to ever sell it!    This is the topic of my post – maintenance.

It is clear that there are some common weaknesses/failures with the Evo, like the inner cam bearing, lifters, base gaskets etc.  I understand that by 1995 many issues were sorted out by HD, but some remained.  My question is whether I should proactively address any of these common issues BEFORE any signs of failure.  Call it "Preventative Maintenance" or "PM".  I know many install performance cams and other upgrades, and these have likely contributed to failures of inner cam bearings and lifters.  My cam is stock ("N").  My engine has never been opened up.

I have seen a variety of opinions on this PM topic and wanted to start a fact-based discussion with experienced folk, and this seems to be the best place.

Now here is the interesting part!  The aeronautical industry has good experience with this PM topic.  I recently found this information about the "Waddington Effect".  PLEASE read this before you respond.  I was blown away when I researched this.  (I love it when conventional thinking proves to be completely wrong.)
https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2014/01/14/the-waddington-effect/
https://www.savvyaviation.com/wp...eaa/EAA_2011-03_the-waddington-effect.pdf

Some background about me: I am a manufacturing (automation) engineer working in automotive for 35 years (Detroit).  Part of my current job is analyzing systematic machine failures (rates, causes) and doing FMEA evaluations (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) on complex manufacturing equipment (lots of robots etc.).  Right or wrong, we have a long culture of "don't fix it until it breaks".

My Question: Would you replace the inner cam bearing or lifters in a 1995 STOCK Evo with 50k miles when there were NO signs of problems and you were NOT planning to open up the cam chest for any other reason? Why?

Thanks everyone for reading this far.  I am interested in informed opinions on the PM topic generally.  Let me know what you think.  Thanks!

George

Yes, replace them. Why not.

In the time it took you to write this and separate the signal from the noise, those lifters and bearings could have been changed and the cost is minimal. For kicks, go look in the TC section, those guys change lifters seemingly monthly and have countless never ending debates on which lifter to use and how to adjust them. Crazy.

While you are in that cam chest putting in a new torrington bearing, you could also swap out the cam for a mild bolt-in.
'We' like this' - Said by the one man operation.

1workinman

Quote from: turboprop on January 26, 2019, 12:28:40 PM
Quote from: GeoRocket on January 25, 2019, 09:30:25 AM
Hello All –

This is my first post, but I have been reading on the site for some time.  I really appreciate all of the good information and willingness of members to share and help others.  This site gives me hope that the internet is actually worthwhile.  Thanks all for your contributions to this site!

I own a 1995 FLHT Evo with 50k miles.  I have owned it since new.  It is completely stock, and I have had very few problems with the bike.  I do not beat on it.   I also work hard to take care of it with proper maintenance.   I love it and have no plans to ever sell it!    This is the topic of my post – maintenance.

It is clear that there are some common weaknesses/failures with the Evo, like the inner cam bearing, lifters, base gaskets etc.  I understand that by 1995 many issues were sorted out by HD, but some remained.  My question is whether I should proactively address any of these common issues BEFORE any signs of failure.  Call it "Preventative Maintenance" or "PM".  I know many install performance cams and other upgrades, and these have likely contributed to failures of inner cam bearings and lifters.  My cam is stock ("N").  My engine has never been opened up.

I have seen a variety of opinions on this PM topic and wanted to start a fact-based discussion with experienced folk, and this seems to be the best place.

Now here is the interesting part!  The aeronautical industry has good experience with this PM topic.  I recently found this information about the "Waddington Effect".  PLEASE read this before you respond.  I was blown away when I researched this.  (I love it when conventional thinking proves to be completely wrong.)
https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2014/01/14/the-waddington-effect/
https://www.savvyaviation.com/wp...eaa/EAA_2011-03_the-waddington-effect.pdf

Some background about me: I am a manufacturing (automation) engineer working in automotive for 35 years (Detroit).  Part of my current job is analyzing systematic machine failures (rates, causes) and doing FMEA evaluations (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) on complex manufacturing equipment (lots of robots etc.).  Right or wrong, we have a long culture of "don't fix it until it breaks".

My Question: Would you replace the inner cam bearing or lifters in a 1995 STOCK Evo with 50k miles when there were NO signs of problems and you were NOT planning to open up the cam chest for any other reason? Why?

Thanks everyone for reading this far.  I am interested in informed opinions on the PM topic generally.  Let me know what you think.  Thanks!

George

Yes, replace them. Why not.

In the time it took you to write this and separate the signal from the noise, those lifters and bearings could have been changed and the cost is minimal. For kicks, go look in the TC section, those guys change lifters seemingly monthly and have countless never ending debates on which lifter to use and how to adjust them. Crazy.

While you are in that cam chest putting in a new torrington bearing, you could also swap out the cam for a mild bolt-in.
Good advice , I sure I am in them camp of spending to much money on Twin cams because I like quality work and same for the parts . I take good advice also , like the clutch basket coming apart . is it a waste of money maybe but I don't need to have experienced something to see value . I don't like run till failure mind set I pass on that

Admiral Akbar

This is hilarious.   Where in the SM does it say to replace the cam bearings and lifters as part of standard maintenance? The Waddington effect is about reducing needed maintenance.  OP is try to lazy himself out of work.

BTW is this were the term "all wadded up" came from ?

98fxstc

Quote from: Admiral Akbar on January 26, 2019, 06:16:12 PM
This is hilarious.   Where in the SM does it say to replace the cam bearings and lifters as part of standard maintenance? The Waddington effect is about reducing needed maintenance.  OP is try to lazy himself out of work.

BTW is this were the term "all wadded up" came from ?

These would not be a service or maintenance item in the SM because the MoCo would not acknowledge any problem with the parts.
Do you still run the original cam bearings and lifters in your bikes Max ?

Heinz

Preventative maintenence can also included the fact that some people like wrenching as much or more than riding. It can give a lot of internal peace and satisfaction to accomplish a task that is well done.

Hossamania

I don't look at replacing the bearing and lifters as standard maintenance. It most certainly is not. But I do view it as good practice. Maybe because I believe what I read, sometimes.
If the government gives you everything you want,
it can take away everything you have.

Hilly13

Quote from: Hossamania on January 26, 2019, 10:17:26 PM
I don't look at replacing the bearing and lifters as standard maintenance. It most certainly is not. But I do view it as good practice. Maybe because I believe what I read, sometimes.
When you see it Hoss you don't forget it in a hurry, hasn't happened to me personally in a catastrophic sense touch wood but I have had a lifter get all noisy and when I pulled them one of the quiet ones had plenty of movement in the bearing, twin cam though but still.
Just because its said don't make it so

thumpr54

I enjoy wrenching...but not along the side of the road so much. Replacing known common failure parts only makes sense....if you run it til its broke yer most likely gonna end up broke down on the road and likely increase the cost with catastrophic failure and towing/pickup costs...maybe even extra nights in a motel waiting for repairs when the whole scenario could have been avoided with some PM.....
growing old is mandatory-growing up is optional
355 AMS(TAC)DMAFB 73-76 VFW6774