Preventative Maintenance - The "Waddington Effect"

[GeoRocket]

Hello All –

This is my first post, but I have been reading on the site for some time.  I really appreciate all of the good information and willingness of members to share and help others.  This site gives me hope that the internet is actually worthwhile.  Thanks all for your contributions to this site!

I own a 1995 FLHT Evo with 50k miles.  I have owned it since new.  It is completely stock, and I have had very few problems with the bike.  I do not beat on it.   I also work hard to take care of it with proper maintenance.   I love it and have no plans to ever sell it!    This is the topic of my post – maintenance.

It is clear that there are some common weaknesses/failures with the Evo, like the inner cam bearing, lifters, base gaskets etc.  I understand that by 1995 many issues were sorted out by HD, but some remained.  My question is whether I should proactively address any of these common issues BEFORE any signs of failure.  Call it "Preventative Maintenance" or "PM".  I know many install performance cams and other upgrades, and these have likely contributed to failures of inner cam bearings and lifters.  My cam is stock ("N").  My engine has never been opened up.

I have seen a variety of opinions on this PM topic and wanted to start a fact-based discussion with experienced folk, and this seems to be the best place.

Now here is the interesting part!  The aeronautical industry has good experience with this PM topic.  I recently found this information about the "Waddington Effect".  PLEASE read this before you respond.  I was blown away when I researched this.  (I love it when conventional thinking proves to be completely wrong.)
https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2014/01/14/the-waddington-effect/
https://www.savvyaviation.com/wp...eaa/EAA_2011-03_the-waddington-effect.pdf

Some background about me: I am a manufacturing (automation) engineer working in automotive for 35 years (Detroit).  Part of my current job is analyzing systematic machine failures (rates, causes) and doing FMEA evaluations (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) on complex manufacturing equipment (lots of robots etc.).  Right or wrong, we have a long culture of "don't fix it until it breaks".

My Question: Would you replace the inner cam bearing or lifters in a 1995 STOCK Evo with 50k miles when there were NO signs of problems and you were NOT planning to open up the cam chest for any other reason?  Why?

Thanks everyone for reading this far.  I am interested in informed opinions on the PM topic generally.  Let me know what you think.  Thanks!

George

[Princess Butt]

I can hear my dad right now, a an engineer who spent most of his career in the defense industry: "If it ain't broken, don't fix it!"

I know when we obsess over the maintenance, it usually consumes us to an unforgiving end. After I first started driving, I discovered something wrong with my car all the time, and I would fix things which would be suspect in reliability. Then I would replace things before they needed replacing, and I had a stash of spare parts coming out of my ears.

But there is another side to this dilemma: how often do we disturb something which was fine to begin with, then something gives us trouble after we open the can of worms? I'm guilty, of course, but I've also learned how to be patient and fix something right.

I would change out the inner cam bearing and the lifters too. Cheap insurance, they're a known failure point with a finite lifespan. When they fail, it gets messy to repair, often requiring extensive disassembly.

Don't put a big cam in there either, or you just start running it harder and expecting more performance. If it runs fine with the stock cam, leave it in there.

Otherwise, the 80 inch Evo is an anvil.

[PC_Hater]

Interesting link to excellent info!
Now, what reliable data does anybody have about the longevity of the inner cam bearing on an EVO?
I know that replacing that bearing ASAP has been the thing to do since the 1980s or earlier.
What does the factory manual recommend?
Even better  - what does the factory manual for Police bikes recommend?

I ask that because the factory manual for the early Twin Cams makes no mention of replacing the engine mounts.
The factory manual for the Police bikes says to replace them every 20,000 miles.

The other option is to test the oil.
When the analysis is done - what is pointing to that bearing about to die?

If you are feeling paranoid - replace it.
Plan B - keep a close eye on it and any funny noises.
At that mileage with your low miles per year I would leave it alone.
Planning go-fasters? Change that bearing!

[Thermodyne]

Hello All –

This is my first post, but I have been reading on the site for some time.  I really appreciate all of the good information and willingness of members to share and help others.  This site gives me hope that the internet is actually worthwhile.  Thanks all for your contributions to this site!

I own a 1995 FLHT Evo with 50k miles.  I have owned it since new.  It is completely stock, and I have had very few problems with the bike.  I do not beat on it.   I also work hard to take care of it with proper maintenance.   I love it and have no plans to ever sell it!    This is the topic of my post – maintenance.

It is clear that there are some common weaknesses/failures with the Evo, like the inner cam bearing, lifters, base gaskets etc.  I understand that by 1995 many issues were sorted out by HD, but some remained.  My question is whether I should proactively address any of these common issues BEFORE any signs of failure.  Call it "Preventative Maintenance" or "PM".  I know many install performance cams and other upgrades, and these have likely contributed to failures of inner cam bearings and lifters.  My cam is stock ("N").  My engine has never been opened up.

I have seen a variety of opinions on this PM topic and wanted to start a fact-based discussion with experienced folk, and this seems to be the best place.

Now here is the interesting part!  The aeronautical industry has good experience with this PM topic.  I recently found this information about the "Waddington Effect".  PLEASE read this before you respond.  I was blown away when I researched this.  (I love it when conventional thinking proves to be completely wrong.)
https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2014/01/14/the-waddington-effect/
https://www.savvyaviation.com/wp...eaa/EAA_2011-03_the-waddington-effect.pdf

Some background about me: I am a manufacturing (automation) engineer working in automotive for 35 years (Detroit).  Part of my current job is analyzing systematic machine failures (rates, causes) and doing FMEA evaluations (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) on complex manufacturing equipment (lots of robots etc.).  Right or wrong, we have a long culture of "don't fix it until it breaks".

My Question: Would you replace the inner cam bearing or lifters in a 1995 STOCK Evo with 50k miles when there were NO signs of problems and you were NOT planning to open up the cam chest for any other reason?  Why?

Thanks everyone for reading this far.  I am interested in informed opinions on the PM topic generally.  Let me know what you think.  Thanks!

George

"If it isn't broke, don't fix it" is a good way to save money.  Except.  And if you are going to use the Waddington study, you need to take it in context.  Wadding was dealing with inherently unreliable aircraft, and poorly trained repair technicians.   

With a Harley motorcycle, the level of difficulty is much lower than say a 1942 B24.  The motor cycle is a much simpler system with few points of failure for a mistake to occur.   And said mistakes seldom result in multiple deaths. Also the level of maintaince being done is nothing like what was done to a 1940's war plane.  But it still takes some technical skill to repair them.

To get to your issue.  The reason behind replacing tappets and cam bearings is that when they fail, they have a nasty habit of writing the whole engine off.  At a minimum they do considerable damage to other components in the cam chest.  There is also the issue of the low cost cam bearing the MoCo accountants were fond of using.  Cam bearing, 4 tappets, and a couple of keys and snap rings along with a few gaskets is a pretty inexpensive repair, when compared to swapping in a reman engine.

And back to the when they fail part, most cam bearings with plastic roller separators are going to fail.  It a materials issue with the plastic.  And even if you catch it early, the correct "Waddington" repair would involve a complete tear down of the engine.  And that involves more parts and more precision assemble work.  Introducing to possibility of errors to the equation. 

As for the tappets, its basically the same issue, many will fail by 50K miles.  And even more will fail shortly after being reinstalled in a repaired engine.  If the needle bearing fails, the correct repair is a complete tear down.  The total failure rate is fairly low on tappets.  But the cost of new tappets is also fairly low.  Less than the labor required to disassemble and check the used tappets. 

So at 50K, you really should replace the cam bearing, along with the oil pump key and snap ring.  Then while you have the tappets out, you make a judgment call.  $100 for new tappets.  Or take a chance.  Maybe you find a roller with excess play and that helps you decide.  Maybe one is badly frosted.  But most likely you will be basically flipping a coin.  Me, I'll spend the $100 bucks every time.  A $100 wont cover the cost of a damaged cam lobe, let alone a complete tear down.   



 

[Hilly13]

What a good read, oil analysis and or filter inspection at service intervals will give you a live history of the engines health, I do the latter but not the former, can't justify the cost to myself.
Anecdotal data, tappets, cam bearing, breather, base gaskets, rocker gaskets. If a base gasket starts leaking and it is ignored the head gasket will fail eventually, the breather if it has never been changed is now a 24 year old piece of plastic, a new one wouldn't hurt, still if it ain't broke.....
Would I change the lifters and bearing in your shoes? If the filter medium showed any reason to then yep, for myself I would anyway, with all due care taken there should only be positives and no Waddington effect.

[CndUltra88]

My experience George is that I like to fix things till they break.
If it aint broke, leaking or making clunking noises leave it alone till it does.
95 they prolly got it all worked out from the porous castings of late 80's early 90's.
Rob

[1workinman]

I was at a class that Timken bearing was presenting at work and I asked the engineer about planed obsolesce or however its spelled . He did get a laugh and of course denied it pertaining to  the unit bearings . . So the way I look at these things are is it worth the risk as the cam bearing and lifters are know to fail . When they do its not pretty . At work as I work at a power generation plant you can run to failure or do the predicted maintained that is suggested by the company that made it or other indicators , vibration or oil analysis for example .  A while back the company decided to save a few dollars and put off a fan over haul . The fan came apart and it was not pretty , as you can guess the cost was substantial lol and derate the unit also . Not good .  I guess is comes down to ones comfort level . I think lifters are item that need replacing at a mileage like oil and the crappy cam bearing need replacing because they were a bad design and know to fail or that what I been told .  Just my option

[Panzer]

So, the way I see it, replace the defective/broken part only when it breaks and disturb/replace nothing else .... button it up.
Interesting.

[IronMike113]

So, the way I see it, replace the defective/broken part only when it breaks and disturb/replace nothing else .... button it up.
Interesting.

We have some that just run the dog chit out of them and never do anything,Or We have some that need to replace everything,,,,,,,,  I try to place myself in the middle of of this and go with the Flow,,,But if we can make it better than the Ole saying they all do that,Why Not,We are Gear Heads here any way,,,,,,,,,,  isn't that why we are here Reading this chit any how,,,,,,,,, 

[mrmike]

Very interesting read, I would think that a good part of the decision might be "is there an improved part for the replacement?"

Mike

[joe40x]

Using this logic, we should never change a tire until it come off of the rim by itself. Gee, that prop looks lose...screw it, we'll fix it when it comes off. England was hard pressed in WW2 to find boots on the ground let alone qualified mechanics. If you could tell the difference between a hammer and a spanner, you were a mechanic.
The Waddington effect is supported with documentation, is verifiable and clearly exacerbated by the use of unqualified or inexperienced  mechanics.
Does your inner cam bearing need replaced? Probably, but not by a 10yr old with a rubber mallet and a screwdriver.

[hbkeith]

Having owned a few EVO,s ( 8 if I remember), you could just wait till something breaks , but it will probally be the lifter falling apart and maybe it will cost $1000+ to fix from the damage or PM the weak parts for couple hundred now 

[Tarkus60]

For the minimal cost of cam bearings and tappets its a no brainer to replace them. They are a wear item, that simple.

[smoserx1]

No I don't believe in that principal, at least not entirely.  You have a low mileage bike.  I have a 99 FLHT with 206000 miles on it and I guarantee you that as the miles increase on yours, your reliably will go down.  Now that being said, I don't blindly follow the service recommendations in the book.  For instance I don't lubricate cables as long as they are operating smoothly.  I have never adjusted the clutch (I did replace it last year as part of a primary change because I wanted a lower overall ratio).  I have only changed the DOT 5 brake fluid twice (once after 4 years and again last year).  The only thing I found was the color had turned yellow, which I later read happens, and the fluid I replaced last year turned yellow within 6 months.  Spark plugs last far longer than the recommended 10000 miles and I run a K&N filter and it really does not need to be cleaned very often.  And one thing that lots of folks don't understand about filtration is that a light particulate layer on the media actually helps in the  particle trapping and is beneficial up to the point of obstructing the flow.

There are weak links in the bike though.  Everyone knows that the cam arrangement in an early twin cam is a disaster waiting to happen.  That is why I run conversion cams that get rid of the outer bearings, and change the inner bearings with full compliment units.  And  anytime I go into the cam compartment those inner bearings are getting replaced as well as are the lifters.  All I have to do is read horror stories here and other places.

I had a swingarm crack once near the axle.  The spacer washer had become dish shaped.  Anyone who has ever taken mechanics of materials or even physics knows that concave washer reduces the contact area and thereby increases the pressure on the swingarm at that point.  Now everytime I put the rear wheel back on I inspect that washer carefully and I have quit using the 60 or so ft pounds of torque the book recommends.  I snug it up to what FEELS good to me and put the lynch pin into the axle at that point.  That new swingarm now has about 85000 on it and the washer has not become dished since I reduced the recommended torque.

I have had to remove my inner primary numerous times now for various reasons (swingarm, belts, stator, IP bearing races, etc).  Lots of seals are involved (shifter shaft, IP bearing, Jackshaft, quad ring, 5th gear mainshaft etc.)  My experience is the seals have a limited life, so everytime the inner primary comes off ALL of the seals get replaced.

I could go on and on, but in the end it is a personal thing based on experience and what works for you.  Ride your bike, maintain it reasonably and  keep your roadside assistance current and your cell phone with you and charged.  That is my advice.

[IronMike113]

 With every action there's an equal and opposite reaction, with every problem there's a solution just a matter of taking action,,,,,,,,,,,  (Albert Einstein)

[Hossamania]

I have taken the philosophy of the Waddington Effect to heart. I have really cut down on the maintenance that I do on the bikes. Not because of this study, but because I'm lazy and cheap.
Having said that, for peace of mind I changed the inner cam bearing and tappets on my Evo at 25,000 miles because it was a known weak point. Same with the Twin Cam.

[guppymech]

George, Welcome to HTT and thanks for the article link, as a 33 yr UAL A&P I followed on with the UAL Nowlan and Heap Reliabilty Centered Maint. report, I'm going to try and wade through it's 520 pages. 
IMO if your engine has the INA bearing it would be good to change it.  As far as lifters, if there is a source for good USA made ones I'd consider changing them but I don't see people changing the roller lifters in their cars at 50K intervals.   I work with a guy that got just over 100K on his 89(?) FLH before he had to think about overhauling his engine, which has just been removed but I haven't heard what the problem with it was. 

[turboprop]

Hello All –

This is my first post, but I have been reading on the site for some time.  I really appreciate all of the good information and willingness of members to share and help others.  This site gives me hope that the internet is actually worthwhile.  Thanks all for your contributions to this site!

I own a 1995 FLHT Evo with 50k miles.  I have owned it since new.  It is completely stock, and I have had very few problems with the bike.  I do not beat on it.   I also work hard to take care of it with proper maintenance.   I love it and have no plans to ever sell it!    This is the topic of my post – maintenance.

It is clear that there are some common weaknesses/failures with the Evo, like the inner cam bearing, lifters, base gaskets etc.  I understand that by 1995 many issues were sorted out by HD, but some remained.  My question is whether I should proactively address any of these common issues BEFORE any signs of failure.  Call it "Preventative Maintenance" or "PM".  I know many install performance cams and other upgrades, and these have likely contributed to failures of inner cam bearings and lifters.  My cam is stock ("N").  My engine has never been opened up.

I have seen a variety of opinions on this PM topic and wanted to start a fact-based discussion with experienced folk, and this seems to be the best place.

Now here is the interesting part!  The aeronautical industry has good experience with this PM topic.  I recently found this information about the "Waddington Effect".  PLEASE read this before you respond.  I was blown away when I researched this.  (I love it when conventional thinking proves to be completely wrong.)
https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2014/01/14/the-waddington-effect/
https://www.savvyaviation.com/wp...eaa/EAA_2011-03_the-waddington-effect.pdf

Some background about me: I am a manufacturing (automation) engineer working in automotive for 35 years (Detroit).  Part of my current job is analyzing systematic machine failures (rates, causes) and doing FMEA evaluations (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) on complex manufacturing equipment (lots of robots etc.).  Right or wrong, we have a long culture of "don't fix it until it breaks".

My Question: Would you replace the inner cam bearing or lifters in a 1995 STOCK Evo with 50k miles when there were NO signs of problems and you were NOT planning to open up the cam chest for any other reason? Why?

Thanks everyone for reading this far.  I am interested in informed opinions on the PM topic generally.  Let me know what you think.  Thanks!

George

Yes, replace them. Why not.

In the time it took you to write this and separate the signal from the noise, those lifters and bearings could have been changed and the cost is minimal. For kicks, go look in the TC section, those guys change lifters seemingly monthly and have countless never ending debates on which lifter to use and how to adjust them. Crazy.

While you are in that cam chest putting in a new torrington bearing, you could also swap out the cam for a mild bolt-in.

[1workinman]

Hello All –

This is my first post, but I have been reading on the site for some time.  I really appreciate all of the good information and willingness of members to share and help others.  This site gives me hope that the internet is actually worthwhile.  Thanks all for your contributions to this site!

I own a 1995 FLHT Evo with 50k miles.  I have owned it since new.  It is completely stock, and I have had very few problems with the bike.  I do not beat on it.   I also work hard to take care of it with proper maintenance.   I love it and have no plans to ever sell it!    This is the topic of my post – maintenance.

It is clear that there are some common weaknesses/failures with the Evo, like the inner cam bearing, lifters, base gaskets etc.  I understand that by 1995 many issues were sorted out by HD, but some remained.  My question is whether I should proactively address any of these common issues BEFORE any signs of failure.  Call it "Preventative Maintenance" or "PM".  I know many install performance cams and other upgrades, and these have likely contributed to failures of inner cam bearings and lifters.  My cam is stock ("N").  My engine has never been opened up.

I have seen a variety of opinions on this PM topic and wanted to start a fact-based discussion with experienced folk, and this seems to be the best place.

Now here is the interesting part!  The aeronautical industry has good experience with this PM topic.  I recently found this information about the "Waddington Effect".  PLEASE read this before you respond.  I was blown away when I researched this.  (I love it when conventional thinking proves to be completely wrong.)
https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2014/01/14/the-waddington-effect/
https://www.savvyaviation.com/wp...eaa/EAA_2011-03_the-waddington-effect.pdf

Some background about me: I am a manufacturing (automation) engineer working in automotive for 35 years (Detroit).  Part of my current job is analyzing systematic machine failures (rates, causes) and doing FMEA evaluations (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) on complex manufacturing equipment (lots of robots etc.).  Right or wrong, we have a long culture of "don't fix it until it breaks".

My Question: Would you replace the inner cam bearing or lifters in a 1995 STOCK Evo with 50k miles when there were NO signs of problems and you were NOT planning to open up the cam chest for any other reason? Why?

Thanks everyone for reading this far.  I am interested in informed opinions on the PM topic generally.  Let me know what you think.  Thanks!

George

Yes, replace them. Why not.

In the time it took you to write this and separate the signal from the noise, those lifters and bearings could have been changed and the cost is minimal. For kicks, go look in the TC section, those guys change lifters seemingly monthly and have countless never ending debates on which lifter to use and how to adjust them. Crazy.

While you are in that cam chest putting in a new torrington bearing, you could also swap out the cam for a mild bolt-in.

Good advice , I sure I am in them camp of spending to much money on Twin cams because I like quality work and same for the parts . I take good advice also , like the clutch basket coming apart . is it a waste of money maybe but I don't need to have experienced something to see value . I don't like run till failure mind set I pass on that

[Admiral Akbar]

This is hilarious.   Where in the SM does it say to replace the cam bearings and lifters as part of standard maintenance? The Waddington effect is about reducing needed maintenance.  OP is try to lazy himself out of work.

BTW is this were the term "all wadded up" came from ?

[98fxstc]

This is hilarious.   Where in the SM does it say to replace the cam bearings and lifters as part of standard maintenance? The Waddington effect is about reducing needed maintenance.  OP is try to lazy himself out of work.

BTW is this were the term "all wadded up" came from ?

These would not be a service or maintenance item in the SM because the MoCo would not acknowledge any problem with the parts.
Do you still run the original cam bearings and lifters in your bikes Max ?

[Heinz]

Preventative maintenence can also included the fact that some people like wrenching as much or more than riding. It can give a lot of internal peace and satisfaction to accomplish a task that is well done.

[Hossamania]

I don't look at replacing the bearing and lifters as standard maintenance. It most certainly is not. But I do view it as good practice. Maybe because I believe what I read, sometimes.

[Hilly13]

I don't look at replacing the bearing and lifters as standard maintenance. It most certainly is not. But I do view it as good practice. Maybe because I believe what I read, sometimes.

When you see it Hoss you don't forget it in a hurry, hasn't happened to me personally in a catastrophic sense touch wood but I have had a lifter get all noisy and when I pulled them one of the quiet ones had plenty of movement in the bearing, twin cam though but still.

[thumpr54]

I enjoy wrenching...but not along the side of the road so much. Replacing known common failure parts only makes sense....if you run it til its broke yer most likely gonna end up broke down on the road and likely increase the cost with catastrophic failure and towing/pickup costs...maybe even extra nights in a motel waiting for repairs when the whole scenario could have been avoided with some PM.....

[HotRodShovel]

Im with Hoss on this.  Replacing the inner cam bearing and lifters are easy work. Replacing these known weak links are an afternoon of fun work, for me anyhow and eliminates the worry of when the sh1t will hit the cam chest.   

Regarding the Waddington Effect, comparing a WWII fighter plane to a modern motorcycle is apples and oranges both in technology and environment.  World war and leisure could not be further apart in context.  Yes, interesting read but if you are dodging maintenance then dont ride or own a Harley.  There are more reliable, trouble free machines out there.  Most HD owners are prepared and not daunted to take wrench in hand when the inevitable event presents itself.  Its all part of the HD experience, for better or worse.

Nice first post!  Keep it up...

[JW113]

Preventative maintenence can also included the fact that some people like wrenching as much or more than riding. It can give a lot of internal peace and satisfaction to accomplish a task that is well done.

Hey! I resemble that remark!


Except the second half. Debateable.


HD service manager: Gee, first time we've ever seen that!

Sound familiar?

EVOs: left side case instert cracking loose, trans pulley nut coming loose, shifter return spring breaking... no mention in the service manual that that might happen. Wonder why?

Early 90s EVOs: right side case cracking at the apex (like mine is right now): No mention in the service manual to even look out for that. Wonder why?

Of course, the FM does talk about side clearance on the tappet rollers. How exactly do you check that as part of regular maintenance? Oh, take it all apart and measure. And since you're in there, do you really just put it back together as is if they're knocking on the door of the service limit?

INA bearing: reams and reams of internet forum posts on these grenading. On stock bikes. Why is HD using these? Because they tolerate more axial misalignment than a full complement bearing such as the Torrington B-138. Meaning HD does not have to do as good a job to align hone the cam bearing bores, i.e. match the nose cone to the case. But then the INA has far fewer needle bearings in it, a thus less load capacity. And that plastic roller separator... really? That alone is reason to get it out of there!

Oh, and if you bought a SE cam, guess what HD puts in the box with it? So much for worries about axial misalignment...

As far as the mothership is concerned, all it has to do is hold together until the first set of tires wears out. Then you're their cash cow. Moooooooooo!

Mr. OP: Your bike, do as you will. Bought your lotto ticket this week?

-JW

[PoorUB]

I am not totally convinced the OEM inner bearing is the culprit. I believe it is the hard surface on the cam failing, then the bearing grenades. I have seen a few sets of stock cams with the bearing surface failing and the bearing looks fine. Usually by the time a mechanic pulls one apart the whole works is a mess because the owner brought it in with a noise in the engine..

[GeoRocket]

Hi All –

Great comments and discussion everyone – thanks.  This is just what I was looking for as there is no correct answer, as with most things in life.  Please keep the comments coming.

I have only opened this discussion for fun and conversation.  It's winter here in Detroit (4*F) so I am dreaming about riding and wrenching, reading my FSM, and whispering to my cold slumbering bike about rides (and service?) to come.  I just thought this "Waddington Effect" was very interesting and counter-intuitive.

A couple of additional thoughts:
- Waddington's RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance) is summarized as: "Maintenance isn't an inherently good thing (like exercise); it's a necessary evil (like surgery). We have to do it from time to time, but we sure don't want to do more than absolutely necessary to keep our aircraft safe and reliable. Doing more maintenance than necessary actually degrades safety and reliability."  It is not clear what "more maintenance than necessary" really means.
- RCM has revolutionized aircraft maintenance in the US and around the world.  It is the basis of modern maintenance programs because it has been proven effective.  (Not true for small private planes however, and this is quite a contested point within the small aircraft community as I understand it.)
- It seems that this Waddington effect would apply to all types of machinery, not just airplanes.  There is always something to learn from other industries, especially those that depend on "mission critical" systems for safety.  (My day job.)  If only we had some actual failure rate data (MTTF, MTBF) on the ICB and lifters.  This data is statistical and no guarantee of life, but better than nothing.

And my plan for my low-mileage 1995 FLHT?  I plan to continue to ride and maintain it, but to really listen carefully for any signs of lifter or ICB failure.  (My ears are my best diagnostic tool.)  When I get closer to 80k-90k miles (and hopefully retirement) I may ignore Waddington's advice and replace my lifters (with the "B" version) and ICB (with the full complement version).  This is within my ability.

I just wish I could separate the failures of ICB's and lifters into two primary groups: Stock cam (unmodified); performance cam (modified).  Does anyone have any feeling for this?

For those of you with a lot of experience with these ICB and lifter failures, are the failures more frequent when a performance cam has been installed? Experienced feedback appreciated!

George

[PoorUB]

I just wish I could separate the failures of ICB's and lifters into two primary groups: Stock cam (unmodified); performance cam (modified).  Does anyone have any feeling for this?

For those of you with a lot of experience with these ICB and lifter failures, are the failures more frequent when a performance cam has been installed? Experienced feedback appreciated!

George

I don't think you will get any useful information. Very few put the OEM bearings or stock cams back in. So you end up comparing stock cams, stock inner bearing to after market cams and inner bearing.

[guppymech]

George, A couple years ago I bought a '84 FXE from the original owner that had never had the engine opened up.  Over the course of the first year of riding I started to have some worries about the condition of the lifters and plastic breather gear so I did what hadn't been done since she left the factory, I pulled the nose cone.  Everything looked fine so I reinstalled the stock cam and lifters along with new gaskets and have no worries. 
Since you have the mechanical skills to do the work, why not have a look, then you'll know.  You'll have to pull the rocker boxes unless you switch to adjustable pushrods but that's not a big deal.  On my old FXLR I used the 12 point lifter block bolts to replace the hard to remove/install sockethead bolts on the rocker covers under the frame, they're the same dia and thread pitch.   
If you want the Airplane angle, since you brought it up. On the Line (not overhaul maint) some of the more critical parts are on a time change interval, most other airframe parts remain in service until they give trouble.  Engines are always getting their filters and magnetic chip detectors looked at, if those things pick up something serious enough the engine gets changed.  Nothing critical is left to chance.

[Julio]

Jeez, no pictures?

Here you go.


Just finished the repairs this morning.
I installed this as part of a new set with an Andrews EV13 and a new Torington in my '85 FXST 11 years and ~30k miles ago.
About a month ago, the bike was in the garage and started making the death rattle when it started,  couldn't have run more than a few seconds before I shut it down. You can see the flat spot and ridge on the roller. When I pulled the lifters out, there was another one that had ~1/16" play in the roller. The others were fine.
OTOH, ~25 years ago, I did a top end on an '87 FXST with a motor that had never been opened and had 80k miles. The lifters were fine but one of the lobes on the cam was dimpled. I left the lifters in, replaced the cam and bearing, and put another 20k miles with no problems before I sold it.
Sometimes you get lucky.
BTW, Koyo bought out Torington a few years ago, so the bearing is now a Koyo B138.

[Admiral Akbar]

This is hilarious.   Where in the SM does it say to replace the cam bearings and lifters as part of standard maintenance? The Waddington effect is about reducing needed maintenance.  OP is try to lazy himself out of work.

BTW is this were the term "all wadded up" came from ?

These would not be a service or maintenance item in the SM because the MoCo would not acknowledge any problem with the parts.
Do you still run the original cam bearings and lifters in your bikes Max ?

You are correct they are not in the service manual. Never were.. That's my point. The whole idea behind Waddington was to remove maintenance that was unnecessary.  Doing the cam bearing and lifters was found when fielding the bike. It was added to decrease severity of failure.  It has nothing to do with Waddington's paper.

Lifters and cam bearings are like gaskets. 

[98fxstc]

This is hilarious.   Where in the SM does it say to replace the cam bearings and lifters as part of standard maintenance? The Waddington effect is about reducing needed maintenance.  OP is try to lazy himself out of work.

BTW is this were the term "all wadded up" came from ?

These would not be a service or maintenance item in the SM because the MoCo would not acknowledge any problem with the parts.
Do you still run the original cam bearings and lifters in your bikes Max ?

You are correct they are not in the service manual. Never were.. That's my point. The whole idea behind Waddington was to remove maintenance that was unnecessary.  Doing the cam bearing and lifters was found when fielding the bike. It was added to decrease severity of failure.  It has nothing to do with Waddington's paper.

Lifters and cam bearings are like gaskets.

Thankyou for clarifying Max, I misunderstood your post.

Replacing substandard parts is different from preventative maintenance.
I think we would agree on that
And the OP does not see the difference ?

[GeoRocket]

Hi All –

I am the OP.  I believe I understand the difference between lifters, a cam bearing and gaskets – I worry we are "off track".

My post was intended to discuss maintenance approaches and PM, and to share this interesting and new-to-me information about the Waddington Effect.  This information has made me question my long-standing beliefs about maintenance and I think I have gained a new and different perspective on the topic.  I am not trying to change anyone's mind.  I am trying to challenge our collective thinking on PM and our basis for it.

To put the comments above from Max and 98fxstc into the proper context I would ask this regarding gaskets:
If the base gaskets on your evo cylinders were NOT leaking, and there was no other reason to remove your cylinders, would you replace the base gaskets only because they are a known source of failure?
If yes - how often would you replace them?  Annually? Monthly? Weekly? 

I am being silly to illustrate the key point: without component failure rate data (MTTF, B10) it seems hard to rationalize preventative maintenance (PM – replacing something BEFORE it breaks) other than that specified in the FSM like fluid changes, adjustments, tires, brake pads etc. (these are consumables).  I could easily decide to replace my base gaskets (even if they are NOT leaking), my stator (even though it is NOT failed), my shifter pawl spring (even if not failed) and on and on.  These are "known" failures on the evo, so why not PM them before they fail?  Waddington has an answer to this.  (Of course the FMEA is important to consider as I previously mentioned.)

Everything will eventually fail, and there's no right answer on PM.  I personally struggle with an anecdotal basis for PM as this can easily lead you astray.  Waddington addressed the problem with a study and data.  I am not debating whether the Waddington Effect is true.  It stands on its own merit quite well.

In my line of work I have failure rate data for the components that make up my manufacturing machines.  It is statistical data and not a guarantee of life.  If the "mission time" of the machinery will exceed the expected life of the component we will PM it on safety-related systems.  The best practice is to carefully choose components that will last the mission time of the complete machine so no PM is required.  We can't do this with our bikes as HD has chosen the components, and the mission time of the machine may be long.  I personally consider many sub-systems on my 1995 stock FLHT as "mission critical" including: brakes, tires/wheels, engine, transmission, drivetrain, lights.

Thanks for reading and contributing.  Sorry for being long-winded.  It's -4F so no riding nor wrenching!  I hope you find the PM topic interesting.

George

[IronMike113]

Well it's well below zero in the Midwest,,,,,,,, Deal with it,,,,,,,

I'm by no means a super Wrench,But one has to Decide when and where one needs to Apply you Waddlington Effect approach,,,,,,,,  I call it a little bit of Common Sense,Pick your Poison,and or take your Chances on it when and where,,,,,,,

Hahahahahahaha, you need to post this stuff over on BMW Forum,,,,,,,,  they like discussing this type of jibber jabber ,,,,,,,,,

[98fxstc]

To the OP
Risk is a personal thing.
We all have a different attitude to the amount of risk and the consequences of a failure.
That has more to do with PM.

There is also the 'while you're in there' philosophy which comes into play as opposed to straight out PM.
Individual attitude comes into this as well.

Max compared lifters and cam bearings to gaskets.
I am not comfortable with that analogy.  I believe he is suggesting lifters and cam bearings are a regular maintenance item since they have a limited life (like oil). Some gaskets remain in place for the life of the bike.

As to your example with base gaskets, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Google 'Hayden oil fix'
I have no base gaskets in my Evo.

[chaos901]

Always like these "winter" time discussions, very informative. 

[IronMike113]

Always like these "winter" time discussions, very informative.

Yes Sir,A lot to be had with even the basics of owning a Mechanical type Mo'Chine,,,,,,,,,

[lickidysplit]

It reminds me of some of the oil threads. Yes I said oil. What brand ,what weight, how often to change, syn or dino ,bla bla bla. Winter sucks but at least I have a heated shop. I changed the oil in my springer 4 times yesterday so I shouldn't have to change it all summer!

[SmokyOwl]

I've never heard of this "Waddington Effect" before, but I do understand it.  Having just purchased a 2006 fatboy with vague service history, but aesthetically it looks very nice.  I had an old '82 bike and I was pulling my hair out trying to fix things on it (sometimes preemptively), parts were cheap but it was just one thing after another ya know?  I still have more than an old TV box filled with so many spare parts now, I could crash that bike and probably have it back together with spare parts within a weekend.  So now I have this well, still older 2006 bike, and now I'm considering buying up as many rubber components and sensors as I can- while I can- before they're discontinued from the dealerships because I encountered that problem before on the 82'.  I'm trying to make a list of rubber components, but it's tough really not knowing them all.  I mean with age it's rubber and electrical stuff that suffers first right?  If anybody wants to give me a general list of recommendations either here or in a PM that'd be great.  Hopefully this time around I won't go so overboard.

[smoserx1]

I mean with age it's rubber and electrical stuff that suffers first right?

Most of the original rubber stuff on my 99 FLHT is fine.  The one exception was the little "s" shaped breather tubes that were used with the stock air cleaner assembly.  They would deteriorate in no time.  When I changed to a SE air cleaner assembly these were replaced with a different kind and they are fine, some 12 years later.  The other exception is the rear muffler mounts.  I replaced countless ones because they would get hard and squeak.  I finally replaced them with drag specialties units and these have held up good.  Like you, I have a box in the attic of parts (some new, some used) that I will probably never use.

I remember when R-12 refrigerant was phased out and I went out and bought several cans of it for future use.  It never got used.  I am finding as my bike (and I) age I can find most of the stuff I need from places like Ebay.  Sometimes the stuff is used, but very often it is almost like new (parts taken off a new bike), and often I can get stuff for pennies on the dollar vs what I would pay the dealer.  Chances are you will be able to find anything you need for your 2006 Fatboy for a long time to come.

[Hossamania]

Any rubber and electrical parts you buy would have to be properly stored long term, or they will deteriorate too.
Your '82 had maybe 20,000 units made at the time, your '06 well over 100,000, with a much larger aftermarket, parts are pretty readily available for the '06.

[nibroc]

if ya not sure what exactly you're bidding on e-bay ye are prone to get burnt--I will admit e-bay has been very informative for me and ya can still find stuff for a '59XLCH....

[SmokyOwl]

if ya not sure what exactly you're bidding on e-bay ye are prone to get burnt--I will admit e-bay has been very informative for me and ya can still find stuff for a '59XLCH....

I've had really good luck in my dealing on eBay myself, been buying for over something like 10 or 15 years now.  After being burned three times in a row on amazon, it's a last resort there.  You're right though, you really gotta know what you want and do RESEARCH!  Not enough of that going around these days.

On my 82' I was experiencing a LOT of frustration with O-rings, the third parties and aftermarket that currently made them just couldn't get the diameters quite right by like 0.5mm to 1mm.  My guess is either they tried to make it a one-size-fits-all thing or maybe a patent issue they couldn't quite overcome.  I think I'll focus on any exposed rubber, which I don't think there's a lot of so it should be fairly simple and keep the list much shorter.  Hopefully it'll absolve some frustration for myself and/or the next few owners.  I'd imagine rubber has improved over the last three decades too.  Thanks for the input guys!

[Paniolo]

I have mixed feelings on this topic. 

I really don't advise skipping maintenance on the bike, although I have cheaped out myself at times. And yes I realize that an oil change is not the same as a 10K or 25k service.

To me scheduled service means checking critical fasteners, lubing the neck, and throttle cables as well as cleaning the air filter. There is also checking brake pads, brake fluids, and a whole check list of stuff.

Last week I took my bike in for a 10k service. I can't explain it, but it felt like a different bike than the one I rode in. It felt smoother and nicer. I know, probably all in my head.

As for the EVO, change out the bearings and lifters, why not.

[Norton Commando]

There are two basic maintenance philosophies: time-based and condition-based.  The first one, time-based, is adopted when you don't know the mean time between failure (MTBF) for a particular component.  So you just take a guess and presume that replacing, say, a super-twister every 6-months will prevent unproductive time owing to the  failure of the super-twister.  The problem with guessing when to replace a part is that you may be unnecessarily replacing a perfectly good part and at the same time inadvertently inducing a failure into the system.  This is the Waddington Effect.

The best approach is to perform maintenance based on the condition of the part.  The problem here is that most H-D riders don't understand the mean-time-between-failure of the components on their motorcycle.  What complicates this is that many H-D owners in their quest for greater performance install some non OEM parts.  So, now there's a mix of OEM components and lord knows what aftermarket components, which further complicates trying to figure out the MTBF.

Therefore until we understand the MTBF for all the possible components and their combinations on an H-D motorcycle, we are compelled to adopt the time-based maintenance strategy and the Waddington effect.

Best,

Jason

[PoorUB]

I feel this way about a simple oil change. you have a perfectly good running motorcycle with just a couple thousand miles on the oil. Every time you remove the oil filter, and pull a drain and/or fill plug you run a slight risk of getting dirt or some other debris in the engine.

Yeah, Yeah, I know those guys that this would never happen because to bike is spotless before hand!

I have seen dirt build up around fill plugs fall into engines, foil from oil bottle caps, bits of paper towels, ink pens, you name it, fall into engines. If the oil don't need to be changed, don't! Running a good synthetic you can easily run 5,000 miles or more without damage. Blackstone oil samples have convinced me of this. I have sent in oil samples with 7,500 miles and they said to run it 2,000 more and send in another sample.

[Barrett]

I feel this way about a simple oil change. you have a perfectly good running motorcycle with just a couple thousand miles on the oil. Every time you remove the oil filter, and pull a drain and/or fill plug you run a slight risk of getting dirt or some other debris in the engine.

Yeah, Yeah, I know those guys that this would never happen because to bike is spotless before hand!

I have seen dirt build up around fill plugs fall into engines, foil from oil bottle caps, bits of paper towels, ink pens, you name it, fall into engines. If the oil don't need to be changed, don't! Running a good synthetic you can easily run 5,000 miles or more without damage. Blackstone oil samples have convinced me of this. I have sent in oil samples with 7,500 miles and they said to run it 2,000 more and send in another sample.

And there's a light that comes on to let you know it's low...

[Paniolo]

No one want's to ride and experience catastrophic failure down on the ground or at 30K feet.

But how many times have we seen posts from folks who went in for a rear tire change and discovered a cracked rear swing arm. It was a known issue on the early FXRs and Pre '02 FLH.

How many of us still give every nut and bolt a good checking before a long ride, and found most needed a good 1/4" turn? Don't want that vibrating loose. Two years ago I had total shifter failure coming back from Yellowstone. The lock nut backed out of the shifter arm, the arm got loose and stripped the splines. That's the kind of stuff you find during regular maintenance.

There's a difference between "if it ain't broke, don't fix it", and scheduled maintenance.  Just find what's comfortable for you.