Preventative Maintenance - The "Waddington Effect"

Started by GeoRocket, January 25, 2019, 09:30:25 AM

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HotRodShovel

Im with Hoss on this.  Replacing the inner cam bearing and lifters are easy work. Replacing these known weak links are an afternoon of fun work, for me anyhow and eliminates the worry of when the sh1t will hit the cam chest.   

Regarding the Waddington Effect, comparing a WWII fighter plane to a modern motorcycle is apples and oranges both in technology and environment.  World war and leisure could not be further apart in context.  Yes, interesting read but if you are dodging maintenance then dont ride or own a Harley.  There are more reliable, trouble free machines out there.  Most HD owners are prepared and not daunted to take wrench in hand when the inevitable event presents itself.  Its all part of the HD experience, for better or worse.

Nice first post!  Keep it up...
Sometimes life is like trying to share a sandwich with Rosie O'Donnell. 
John

JW113

Quote from: Heinz on January 26, 2019, 07:12:13 PM
Preventative maintenence can also included the fact that some people like wrenching as much or more than riding. It can give a lot of internal peace and satisfaction to accomplish a task that is well done.

Hey! I resemble that remark!
:SM:

Except the second half. Debateable.
:SM: :SM:

HD service manager: Gee, first time we've ever seen that!

Sound familiar?

EVOs: left side case instert cracking loose, trans pulley nut coming loose, shifter return spring breaking... no mention in the service manual that that might happen. Wonder why?

Early 90s EVOs: right side case cracking at the apex (like mine is right now): No mention in the service manual to even look out for that. Wonder why?

Of course, the FM does talk about side clearance on the tappet rollers. How exactly do you check that as part of regular maintenance? Oh, take it all apart and measure. And since you're in there, do you really just put it back together as is if they're knocking on the door of the service limit?

INA bearing: reams and reams of internet forum posts on these grenading. On stock bikes. Why is HD using these? Because they tolerate more axial misalignment than a full complement bearing such as the Torrington B-138. Meaning HD does not have to do as good a job to align hone the cam bearing bores, i.e. match the nose cone to the case. But then the INA has far fewer needle bearings in it, a thus less load capacity. And that plastic roller separator... really? That alone is reason to get it out of there!

Oh, and if you bought a SE cam, guess what HD puts in the box with it? So much for worries about axial misalignment...

As far as the mothership is concerned, all it has to do is hold together until the first set of tires wears out. Then you're their cash cow. Moooooooooo!

Mr. OP: Your bike, do as you will. Bought your lotto ticket this week?

-JW
2004 FLHRS   1977 FLH Shovelhead  1992 FLSTC
1945 Indian Chief   1978 XL Bobber

PoorUB

I am not totally convinced the OEM inner bearing is the culprit. I believe it is the hard surface on the cam failing, then the bearing grenades. I have seen a few sets of stock cams with the bearing surface failing and the bearing looks fine. Usually by the time a mechanic pulls one apart the whole works is a mess because the owner brought it in with a noise in the engine..
I am an adult?? When did that happen, and how do I make it stop?!

GeoRocket

Hi All –

Great comments and discussion everyone – thanks.  This is just what I was looking for as there is no correct answer, as with most things in life.  Please keep the comments coming.

I have only opened this discussion for fun and conversation.  It's winter here in Detroit (4*F) so I am dreaming about riding and wrenching, reading my FSM, and whispering to my cold slumbering bike about rides (and service?) to come.  I just thought this "Waddington Effect" was very interesting and counter-intuitive.

A couple of additional thoughts:
- Waddington's RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance) is summarized as: "Maintenance isn't an inherently good thing (like exercise); it's a necessary evil (like surgery). We have to do it from time to time, but we sure don't want to do more than absolutely necessary to keep our aircraft safe and reliable. Doing more maintenance than necessary actually degrades safety and reliability."  It is not clear what "more maintenance than necessary" really means.
- RCM has revolutionized aircraft maintenance in the US and around the world.  It is the basis of modern maintenance programs because it has been proven effective.  (Not true for small private planes however, and this is quite a contested point within the small aircraft community as I understand it.)
- It seems that this Waddington effect would apply to all types of machinery, not just airplanes.  There is always something to learn from other industries, especially those that depend on "mission critical" systems for safety.  (My day job.)  If only we had some actual failure rate data (MTTF, MTBF) on the ICB and lifters.  This data is statistical and no guarantee of life, but better than nothing.

And my plan for my low-mileage 1995 FLHT?  I plan to continue to ride and maintain it, but to really listen carefully for any signs of lifter or ICB failure.  (My ears are my best diagnostic tool.)  When I get closer to 80k-90k miles (and hopefully retirement) I may ignore Waddington's advice and replace my lifters (with the "B" version) and ICB (with the full complement version).  This is within my ability.

I just wish I could separate the failures of ICB's and lifters into two primary groups: Stock cam (unmodified); performance cam (modified).  Does anyone have any feeling for this?

For those of you with a lot of experience with these ICB and lifter failures, are the failures more frequent when a performance cam has been installed? Experienced feedback appreciated!

George

PoorUB

Quote from: GeoRocket on January 27, 2019, 11:34:18 AM
I just wish I could separate the failures of ICB's and lifters into two primary groups: Stock cam (unmodified); performance cam (modified).  Does anyone have any feeling for this?

For those of you with a lot of experience with these ICB and lifter failures, are the failures more frequent when a performance cam has been installed? Experienced feedback appreciated!

George

I don't think you will get any useful information. Very few put the OEM bearings or stock cams back in. So you end up comparing stock cams, stock inner bearing to after market cams and inner bearing.
I am an adult?? When did that happen, and how do I make it stop?!

guppymech

January 27, 2019, 02:14:51 PM #30 Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 03:08:16 PM by guppymech
George, A couple years ago I bought a '84 FXE from the original owner that had never had the engine opened up.  Over the course of the first year of riding I started to have some worries about the condition of the lifters and plastic breather gear so I did what hadn't been done since she left the factory, I pulled the nose cone.  Everything looked fine so I reinstalled the stock cam and lifters along with new gaskets and have no worries. 
Since you have the mechanical skills to do the work, why not have a look, then you'll know.  You'll have to pull the rocker boxes unless you switch to adjustable pushrods but that's not a big deal.  On my old FXLR I used the 12 point lifter block bolts to replace the hard to remove/install sockethead bolts on the rocker covers under the frame, they're the same dia and thread pitch.   
If you want the Airplane angle, since you brought it up. On the Line (not overhaul maint) some of the more critical parts are on a time change interval, most other airframe parts remain in service until they give trouble.  Engines are always getting their filters and magnetic chip detectors looked at, if those things pick up something serious enough the engine gets changed.  Nothing critical is left to chance.
'84 FXE, '02 883R

Julio

Jeez, no pictures?

Here you go.


Just finished the repairs this morning.
I installed this as part of a new set with an Andrews EV13 and a new Torington in my '85 FXST 11 years and ~30k miles ago.
About a month ago, the bike was in the garage and started making the death rattle when it started,  couldn't have run more than a few seconds before I shut it down. You can see the flat spot and ridge on the roller. When I pulled the lifters out, there was another one that had ~1/16" play in the roller. The others were fine.
OTOH, ~25 years ago, I did a top end on an '87 FXST with a motor that had never been opened and had 80k miles. The lifters were fine but one of the lobes on the cam was dimpled. I left the lifters in, replaced the cam and bearing, and put another 20k miles with no problems before I sold it.
Sometimes you get lucky.
BTW, Koyo bought out Torington a few years ago, so the bearing is now a Koyo B138.

Admiral Akbar

Quote from: 98fxstc on January 26, 2019, 06:50:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Akbar on January 26, 2019, 06:16:12 PM
This is hilarious.   Where in the SM does it say to replace the cam bearings and lifters as part of standard maintenance? The Waddington effect is about reducing needed maintenance.  OP is try to lazy himself out of work.

BTW is this were the term "all wadded up" came from ?

These would not be a service or maintenance item in the SM because the MoCo would not acknowledge any problem with the parts.
Do you still run the original cam bearings and lifters in your bikes Max ?

You are correct they are not in the service manual. Never were.. That's my point. The whole idea behind Waddington was to remove maintenance that was unnecessary.  Doing the cam bearing and lifters was found when fielding the bike. It was added to decrease severity of failure.  It has nothing to do with Waddington's paper.

Lifters and cam bearings are like gaskets. 

98fxstc

Quote from: Admiral Akbar on January 28, 2019, 07:29:18 PM
Quote from: 98fxstc on January 26, 2019, 06:50:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Akbar on January 26, 2019, 06:16:12 PM
This is hilarious.   Where in the SM does it say to replace the cam bearings and lifters as part of standard maintenance? The Waddington effect is about reducing needed maintenance.  OP is try to lazy himself out of work.

BTW is this were the term "all wadded up" came from ?

These would not be a service or maintenance item in the SM because the MoCo would not acknowledge any problem with the parts.
Do you still run the original cam bearings and lifters in your bikes Max ?

You are correct they are not in the service manual. Never were.. That's my point. The whole idea behind Waddington was to remove maintenance that was unnecessary.  Doing the cam bearing and lifters was found when fielding the bike. It was added to decrease severity of failure.  It has nothing to do with Waddington's paper.

Lifters and cam bearings are like gaskets.

Thankyou for clarifying Max, I misunderstood your post.

Replacing substandard parts is different from preventative maintenance.
I think we would agree on that
And the OP does not see the difference ?

GeoRocket

Hi All –

I am the OP.  I believe I understand the difference between lifters, a cam bearing and gaskets – I worry we are "off track".

My post was intended to discuss maintenance approaches and PM, and to share this interesting and new-to-me information about the Waddington Effect.  This information has made me question my long-standing beliefs about maintenance and I think I have gained a new and different perspective on the topic.  I am not trying to change anyone's mind.  I am trying to challenge our collective thinking on PM and our basis for it.

To put the comments above from Max and 98fxstc into the proper context I would ask this regarding gaskets:
If the base gaskets on your evo cylinders were NOT leaking, and there was no other reason to remove your cylinders, would you replace the base gaskets only because they are a known source of failure?
If yes - how often would you replace them?  Annually? Monthly? Weekly? 


I am being silly to illustrate the key point: without component failure rate data (MTTF, B10) it seems hard to rationalize preventative maintenance (PM – replacing something BEFORE it breaks) other than that specified in the FSM like fluid changes, adjustments, tires, brake pads etc. (these are consumables).  I could easily decide to replace my base gaskets (even if they are NOT leaking), my stator (even though it is NOT failed), my shifter pawl spring (even if not failed) and on and on.  These are "known" failures on the evo, so why not PM them before they fail?  Waddington has an answer to this.  (Of course the FMEA is important to consider as I previously mentioned.)

Everything will eventually fail, and there's no right answer on PM.  I personally struggle with an anecdotal basis for PM as this can easily lead you astray.  Waddington addressed the problem with a study and data.  I am not debating whether the Waddington Effect is true.  It stands on its own merit quite well.

In my line of work I have failure rate data for the components that make up my manufacturing machines.  It is statistical data and not a guarantee of life.  If the "mission time" of the machinery will exceed the expected life of the component we will PM it on safety-related systems.  The best practice is to carefully choose components that will last the mission time of the complete machine so no PM is required.  We can't do this with our bikes as HD has chosen the components, and the mission time of the machine may be long.  I personally consider many sub-systems on my 1995 stock FLHT as "mission critical" including: brakes, tires/wheels, engine, transmission, drivetrain, lights.

Thanks for reading and contributing.  Sorry for being long-winded.  It's -4F so no riding nor wrenching!  I hope you find the PM topic interesting.

George

IronMike113

Well it's well below zero in the Midwest,,,,,,,, :emoGroan: Deal with it,,,,,,, :hyst:

I'm by no means a super Wrench,But one has to Decide when and where one needs to Apply you Waddlington Effect approach,,,,,,,,  :potstir: I call it a little bit of Common Sense,Pick your Poison,and or take your Chances on it when and where,,,,,,, :wink:

Hahahahahahaha, :hyst: you need to post this stuff over on BMW Forum,,,,,,,,  :potstir: they like discussing this type of jibber jabber ,,,,,,,,, :hyst:
2 Bikes and 2 Beemers, that's what I have been told 😳

98fxstc

To the OP
Risk is a personal thing.
We all have a different attitude to the amount of risk and the consequences of a failure.
That has more to do with PM.

There is also the 'while you're in there' philosophy which comes into play as opposed to straight out PM.
Individual attitude comes into this as well.

Max compared lifters and cam bearings to gaskets.
I am not comfortable with that analogy.  I believe he is suggesting lifters and cam bearings are a regular maintenance item since they have a limited life (like oil). Some gaskets remain in place for the life of the bike.

As to your example with base gaskets, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Google 'Hayden oil fix'
I have no base gaskets in my Evo.

chaos901

Always like these "winter" time discussions, very informative. 
"There are only two truly infinite things, the universe and stupidity." AE

IronMike113

Quote from: chaos901 on January 30, 2019, 01:59:52 PM
Always like these "winter" time discussions, very informative.

Yes Sir,A lot to be had with even the basics of owning a Mechanical type Mo'Chine,,,,,,,,, :SM:
2 Bikes and 2 Beemers, that's what I have been told 😳

lickidysplit

It reminds me of some of the oil threads. Yes I said oil. What brand ,what weight, how often to change, syn or dino ,bla bla bla. Winter sucks but at least I have a heated shop. I changed the oil in my springer 4 times yesterday so I shouldn't have to change it all summer!

SmokyOwl

I've never heard of this "Waddington Effect" before, but I do understand it.  Having just purchased a 2006 fatboy with vague service history, but aesthetically it looks very nice.  I had an old '82 bike and I was pulling my hair out trying to fix things on it (sometimes preemptively), parts were cheap but it was just one thing after another ya know?  I still have more than an old TV box filled with so many spare parts now, I could crash that bike and probably have it back together with spare parts within a weekend.  So now I have this well, still older 2006 bike, and now I'm considering buying up as many rubber components and sensors as I can- while I can- before they're discontinued from the dealerships because I encountered that problem before on the 82'.  I'm trying to make a list of rubber components, but it's tough really not knowing them all.  I mean with age it's rubber and electrical stuff that suffers first right?  If anybody wants to give me a general list of recommendations either here or in a PM that'd be great.  Hopefully this time around I won't go so overboard.
"Attack life.  It's going to kill you anyways." - Steve McQueen

smoserx1

QuoteI mean with age it's rubber and electrical stuff that suffers first right?

Most of the original rubber stuff on my 99 FLHT is fine.  The one exception was the little "s" shaped breather tubes that were used with the stock air cleaner assembly.  They would deteriorate in no time.  When I changed to a SE air cleaner assembly these were replaced with a different kind and they are fine, some 12 years later.  The other exception is the rear muffler mounts.  I replaced countless ones because they would get hard and squeak.  I finally replaced them with drag specialties units and these have held up good.  Like you, I have a box in the attic of parts (some new, some used) that I will probably never use.

I remember when R-12 refrigerant was phased out and I went out and bought several cans of it for future use.  It never got used.  I am finding as my bike (and I) age I can find most of the stuff I need from places like Ebay.  Sometimes the stuff is used, but very often it is almost like new (parts taken off a new bike), and often I can get stuff for pennies on the dollar vs what I would pay the dealer.  Chances are you will be able to find anything you need for your 2006 Fatboy for a long time to come.

Hossamania

Any rubber and electrical parts you buy would have to be properly stored long term, or they will deteriorate too.
Your '82 had maybe 20,000 units made at the time, your '06 well over 100,000, with a much larger aftermarket, parts are pretty readily available for the '06.
If the government gives you everything you want,
it can take away everything you have.

nibroc

if ya not sure what exactly you're bidding on e-bay ye are prone to get burnt--I will admit e-bay has been very informative for me and ya can still find stuff for a '59XLCH.... :chop:

SmokyOwl

Quote from: nibroc on February 13, 2019, 05:26:16 AM
if ya not sure what exactly you're bidding on e-bay ye are prone to get burnt--I will admit e-bay has been very informative for me and ya can still find stuff for a '59XLCH.... :chop:

:agree: I've had really good luck in my dealing on eBay myself, been buying for over something like 10 or 15 years now.  After being burned three times in a row on amazon, it's a last resort there.  You're right though, you really gotta know what you want and do RESEARCH!  Not enough of that going around these days.

On my 82' I was experiencing a LOT of frustration with O-rings, the third parties and aftermarket that currently made them just couldn't get the diameters quite right by like 0.5mm to 1mm.  My guess is either they tried to make it a one-size-fits-all thing or maybe a patent issue they couldn't quite overcome.  I think I'll focus on any exposed rubber, which I don't think there's a lot of so it should be fairly simple and keep the list much shorter.  Hopefully it'll absolve some frustration for myself and/or the next few owners.  I'd imagine rubber has improved over the last three decades too.  Thanks for the input guys!
"Attack life.  It's going to kill you anyways." - Steve McQueen

Paniolo

I have mixed feelings on this topic. 

I really don't advise skipping maintenance on the bike, although I have cheaped out myself at times. And yes I realize that an oil change is not the same as a 10K or 25k service.

To me scheduled service means checking critical fasteners, lubing the neck, and throttle cables as well as cleaning the air filter. There is also checking brake pads, brake fluids, and a whole check list of stuff.

Last week I took my bike in for a 10k service. I can't explain it, but it felt like a different bike than the one I rode in. It felt smoother and nicer. I know, probably all in my head.

As for the EVO, change out the bearings and lifters, why not.
Life can only be lived in the present moment.

Norton Commando

March 18, 2019, 04:43:05 PM #46 Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 05:00:47 PM by Norton Commando
There are two basic maintenance philosophies: time-based and condition-based.  The first one, time-based, is adopted when you don't know the mean time between failure (MTBF) for a particular component.  So you just take a guess and presume that replacing, say, a super-twister every 6-months will prevent unproductive time owing to the  failure of the super-twister.  The problem with guessing when to replace a part is that you may be unnecessarily replacing a perfectly good part and at the same time inadvertently inducing a failure into the system.  This is the Waddington Effect.

The best approach is to perform maintenance based on the condition of the part.  The problem here is that most H-D riders don't understand the mean-time-between-failure of the components on their motorcycle.  What complicates this is that many H-D owners in their quest for greater performance install some non OEM parts.  So, now there's a mix of OEM components and lord knows what aftermarket components, which further complicates trying to figure out the MTBF.

Therefore until we understand the MTBF for all the possible components and their combinations on an H-D motorcycle, we are compelled to adopt the time-based maintenance strategy and the Waddington effect.

Best,

Jason
Remember, you can sleep in your car, but you can't drive your house.

PoorUB

I feel this way about a simple oil change. you have a perfectly good running motorcycle with just a couple thousand miles on the oil. Every time you remove the oil filter, and pull a drain and/or fill plug you run a slight risk of getting dirt or some other debris in the engine.

Yeah, Yeah, I know those guys that this would never happen because to bike is spotless before hand!

I have seen dirt build up around fill plugs fall into engines, foil from oil bottle caps, bits of paper towels, ink pens, you name it, fall into engines. If the oil don't need to be changed, don't! Running a good synthetic you can easily run 5,000 miles or more without damage. Blackstone oil samples have convinced me of this. I have sent in oil samples with 7,500 miles and they said to run it 2,000 more and send in another sample.
I am an adult?? When did that happen, and how do I make it stop?!

Barrett

Quote from: PoorUB on March 18, 2019, 05:36:10 PM
I feel this way about a simple oil change. you have a perfectly good running motorcycle with just a couple thousand miles on the oil. Every time you remove the oil filter, and pull a drain and/or fill plug you run a slight risk of getting dirt or some other debris in the engine.

Yeah, Yeah, I know those guys that this would never happen because to bike is spotless before hand!

I have seen dirt build up around fill plugs fall into engines, foil from oil bottle caps, bits of paper towels, ink pens, you name it, fall into engines. If the oil don't need to be changed, don't! Running a good synthetic you can easily run 5,000 miles or more without damage. Blackstone oil samples have convinced me of this. I have sent in oil samples with 7,500 miles and they said to run it 2,000 more and send in another sample.

And there's a light that comes on to let you know it's low...

Paniolo

No one want's to ride and experience catastrophic failure down on the ground or at 30K feet.

But how many times have we seen posts from folks who went in for a rear tire change and discovered a cracked rear swing arm. It was a known issue on the early FXRs and Pre '02 FLH.

How many of us still give every nut and bolt a good checking before a long ride, and found most needed a good 1/4" turn? Don't want that vibrating loose. Two years ago I had total shifter failure coming back from Yellowstone. The lock nut backed out of the shifter arm, the arm got loose and stripped the splines. That's the kind of stuff you find during regular maintenance.

There's a difference between "if it ain't broke, don't fix it", and scheduled maintenance.  Just find what's comfortable for you.
Life can only be lived in the present moment.